Irish Times, December 2023.
Forecasting the future is inherently challenging, especially considering the multifaceted influences affecting the current housing market. Despite a series of ten interest rate increases over the past 16 months, the demand for various property categories has proven resilient, with transaction volumes largely consistent with those of 2022. Furthermore, price inflation has exhibited stability, with average values showing a modest growth of 2-3%, a trend expected to persist in the upcoming year.
While it is anticipated that house completions will surpass 30,000 this year, the preferred V-shaped recovery in supply has not materialised. Consequently, a significant supply deficit is likely to persist in the coming years. The scarcity of new supply has had a cascading effect, negatively impacting the volume of other properties entering the market. This trend is likely to endure or potentially worsen in the approaching year. However, if I had one wish for 2024, it would be a bold policy response to address the supply deficit, without this I fear another year of discontent for potential purchasers and tenants.
